秦岭以南地区降水量变化及其灾害效应研究   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

刘引鸽  葛永刚  周旗 《干旱区地理》2008,31(1):50-55

近年来气候变化诱发的灾害效应损失严重。利用秦岭以南地区1951-2001年28个站逐月降水资料,计算了降水量的线性趋势值及降水距平变化,分析了降水量的时间和空间演变特征。受地形影响,秦岭南北与东西降水量变化差异较大,西部大于东部,南坡多于北坡,季节性降水过程差异也很明显;年平均最大降水量为1 254.6 mm,出现在镇巴,最少降水量为690.7 mm,出现在丹凤;50年来降水量变化呈减少趋势,平均递减率为56.5 mm/10 a。分析表明,降水突变是触发其它灾害的主要因素。由强降水及连阴雨诱发的干旱、洪涝及地质灾害效应损失严重,在降雨强度达200 mm/d以上的区域成为泥石流、滑坡灾害,水土流失的多发区,主要分布在秦岭以南多暴雨中心的米仓山、大巴山、佛坪、商南及洛南一带。降水诱发的灾害效应与人类活动也密切相关,这些研究为未来防灾减灾和环境治理提供了依据。  相似文献   

Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River （1736-2000）   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

郝志新  郑景云  葛全胜 《地理学报(英文版)》2008,18(1):17-25

Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736-2000 reconstructed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipitation changes, are explored. The results show that： the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2-4a, quasi-22a and 70-80a. The 2-4a cycle is linked with El Nino events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Nino year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70-80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70-80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong （weak） solar activity is generally correlated to the dry （wet） periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80-100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is becoming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70-80a time scale.  相似文献   

中国西北极端降水事件年内非均匀性特征分析   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8  

杨金虎  江志红  王鹏祥  张小明 《中国沙漠》2008,28(1):178-184

 基于中国西北五省（区）1960—2004年112个台站逐日降水资料,根据百分位值方法定义了不同台站的极端降水阈值,引入了表征时间分配特征的新参数——极端降水事件集中度和集中期,对中国西北极端降水事件的年内非均匀性特征进行了分析,结果表明：西北年极端降水事件集中度及集中期的平均和异常空间分布都存在很大的区域差异,并且其异常空间分布均可分为6个关键区;而从时间演变来看,各个关键区年极端降水事件的集中度与集中期均表现出了显著的年代际振荡特征,但各分区年代际变化特征并不一致;另外西北东、西部年极端降水事件集中度与集中期表现出反向的变化趋势。  相似文献   

中国天山山区235 a气候变化及降水趋势预测   总被引：27，自引：18，他引：9  

魏文寿  袁玉江  喻树龙  张瑞波 《中国沙漠》2008,28(5):803-808

  利用4个降水重建序列与天山山区10个气象站降水变化的响应关系,重建了天山山区近235 a来气候变化的年降水序列,重建序列的方差解释量达到47.7%。对过去235 a天山山区气候变化中降水变化的特征分析发现：降水大致经历了7干7湿的变化阶段,其中偏湿年份为124 a,多于偏干年份;天山山区的降水量以2.1 a、3.0 a、5.8 a、6.0 a的高频变化和24~25 a的低频变化周期最为显著。研究表明,近百年天山山区气候变化中的降水变化分为两个阶段,20世纪初到80年代,降水量逐渐减少,导致冰川退缩、河流径流量减少、湖泊萎缩、沙漠面积增大、植被覆盖率减少;80年代后期至今,降水量迅速增加,导致河川径流量增加、湖泊面积增大和沙尘暴日数减少,生态环境趋于好转,但同时造成洪水和地质灾害频繁。采用基于方差分析的周期叠加方法对天山山区未来23 a气候变化中降水的演变趋势进行预测,结果表明：未来23 a气候变化中天山山区以湿润为主,期间有部分年份可能较常年干旱。  相似文献   

华南冬春降水的年际变化及其与水汽输送的联系   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

吴蔚  温之平  陈运光  崔少萍 《热带气象学报》2012,(2):187-196

利用1960—2008 年华南47 个基准站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料,研究了华南冬春降水的年际变化特征及其与水汽输送的联系。结果表明,1960 年代—1970 年代和1990 年代末至今,华南冬、春降水明显偏少。华南冬春降水异常以“ 全区冬春同号型” 居多,且冬春连旱频率较高。影响华南冬春连续旱/涝的水汽输送存在季节性差异,冬季水汽输送变化主要来源于孟加拉湾和南海,春季水汽输送变化则来源于南海和我国北方。进一步探讨海温异常的影响发现,与华南冬春连续旱(涝)事件相关的Niño3.4 海温存在正、负异常型,海温异常中心分别偏向Niño4(Niño3)区和Niño3(Niño4)区。Niño3.4 区海温正异常时,孟加拉湾和南海水汽输送与华南冬春连续旱涝有密切联系;Niño3.4 区海温负异常时,冬季自西北太平洋经南海的水汽输送及春季自菲律宾海经南海的水汽输送和北方水汽输送对华南冬春连续旱涝有重要影响。以上水汽输送在两种海温异常情况下,连涝(旱)年均异常偏强(弱)。因此,Niño3.4 海温异常的变化及分布与华南冬春持续旱/涝事件存在联系,在此气候背景下,水汽输送异常是影响华南冬春降水异常的重要物理因子,其中南海是水汽输送异常显著相关区。   相似文献   

桂林岩溶区大气降水的化学特征分析   总被引：11，自引：5，他引：6  

张红波  于奭  何师意  刘齐  李幼玲 《中国岩溶》2012,31(3):289-295

2009年1月至2010年12月期间,对处于岩溶区的桂林市降水进行了连续采样测试分析。研究结果表明:(1)桂林市区降水的pH平均值为4.83,降水的电导率平均值为65μS/cm,SO42-、NO3-和Ca2+、NH4+分别是最主要的阴阳离子。(2)桂林市降水各主要离子含量、降雨量和电导率表现出明显的季节差异,其中Ca2+、Mg2+含量在夏、冬季较高,春、秋季较低。(3)降雨量和TDS呈现出良好的负相关关系, SO42-和NO3-以及Ca2+和Mg2+之间则具有较好的正相关关系。(4)2009—2010年与1994—1995年相比,降水中的离子含量增加了1.16倍,降水的pH值有所增高,但仍在酸雨范围之内。在桂林酸雨形成中,降水的NO3-贡献明显增强。(5)通过2012年3月1—6日连续6天的降水监测,发现pH、降雨量和电导率三者呈现出良好的相关性。   相似文献   

Quantifying the Spatial Characteristics of the Moisture Transport Affecting Precipitation Seasonality and Recycling Variability in Central Asia     

Linhao ZHONG  Lijuan HUA  Zhaohui GONG  Yao YAO  Lin MU 《大气科学进展》2022,39(6):967-984

Moisture contribution and transport pathways for Central Asia(CA)are quantitatively examined using the Lagrangian water cycle model based on reanalysis and observational data to explain the precipitation seasonality and the moisture transport variation during 1979-2015.Westerly-related(northwesterly and westerly)transport explains 42%of CA precipitation and dominates in southwest CA,where precipitation is greatest in the cold season.Southeast CA,including part of Northwest China,experiences its maximum precipitation in the warm season and is solely dominated by southerly transport,which explains about 48%of CA precipitation.The remaining 10%of CA precipitation is explained by northerly transport,which steadily impacts north CA and causes a maximum in precipitation in the warm season.Most CA areas are exposed to seasonally varying moisture transport,except for southeast and north CA,which are impacted by southerly and northerly transport year-round.In general,the midlatitude westerlies-driven transport and the Indian monsoon-driven southerly-related transport explain most of the spatial differences in precipitation seasonality over CA.Moreover,the contribution ratio of local evaporation in CA to precipitation exhibits significant interdecadal variability and a meridionally oriented tripole of moisture transport anomalies.Since the early 2000s,CA has experienced a decade of anomalously low local moisture contribution,which seems jointly determined by the weakened moisture contribution from midlatitudes(the Atlantic,Europe,and CA itself)and the enhanced contribution from high latitudes(West Siberia and the Arctic)and tropical areas(South Asia and the Indian Ocean).  相似文献   

Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River (1736?2000)     

HAO Zhixin  ZHENG Jingyun  GE Quansheng 《地理学报》2008,18(1):17-25

Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736?2000 recon-structed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipita-tion changes, are explored. The results show that: the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2?4a, quasi-22a and 70?80a. The 2?4a cycle is linked with El Ni?o events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Ni?o year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70?80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70?80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong (weak) solar activity is generally correlated to the dry (wet) periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80?100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is be-coming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70?80a time scale.  相似文献   

Cluster analysis on summer precipitation field over Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2004     

LU Heli  SHAO Quanqin  LIU Jiyuan  WANG Junbang  CHEN Shenbin  CHEN Zhuoqi 《地理学报》2008,18(3):295-307

The summer day-by-day precipitation data of 97 meteorological stations on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2004 were selected to analyze the temporal-spatial dis-tribution through accumulated variance, correlation analysis, regression analysis, empirical orthogonal function, power spectrum function and spatial analysis tools of GIS. The result showed that summer precipitation occupied a relatively high proportion in the area with less annual precipitation on the Plateau and the correlation between summer precipitation and annual precipitation was strong. The altitude of these stations and summer precipitation ten-dency presented stronger positive correlation below 2000 m, with correlation value up to 0.604 (α=0.01). The subtracting tendency values between 1961–1983 and 1984–2004 at five altitude ranges (2000–2500 m, 2500–3000 m, 3500–4000 m, 4000–4500 m and above 4500 m) were above zero and accounted for 71.4% of the total. Using empirical orthogonal function, summer precipitation could be roughly divided into three precipitation pattern fields: the Southeast Plateau Pattern Field, the Northeast Plateau Pattern field and the Three Rivers' Headstream Regions Pattern Field. The former two ones had a reverse value from the north to the south and opposite line was along 35°N. The potential cycles of the three pattern fields were 5.33a, 21.33a and 2.17a respectively, tested by the confidence probability of 90%. The station altitudes and summer precipitation potential cycles presented strong negative corre-lation in the stations above 4500 m, with correlation value of –0.626 (α=0.01). In Three Rivers Headstream Regions summer precipitation cycle decreased as the altitude rose in the sta-tions above 3500 m and increased as the altitude rose in those below 3500 m. The empirical orthogonal function analysis in June precipitation, July precipitation and August precipitation showed that the June precipitation pattern field was similar to the July’s, in which southern Plateau was positive and northern Plateau negative. But positive value area in July precipita-tion pattern field was obviously less than June’s. The August pattern field was totally opposite to June’s and July’s. The positive area in August pattern field jumped from the southern Pla-teau to the northern Plateau.  相似文献   

基于TRMM数据的鄱阳湖流域降雨时空分布特征及其精度评价   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

李相虎  张奇  邵敏 《地理科学进展》2012,31(9):1164-1170

基于1998-2007 年热带测雨卫星(TRMM) 3B42 V6 降雨数据分析鄱阳湖流域降雨时空分布特征, 并利用40个气象站观测日降雨数据对TRMM数据在不同子流域、不同降雨强度及不同季节里的精度进行了对比分析, 弥补了以往只评价整体精度的不足。结果显示:鄱阳湖流域北部地区修水、饶河子流域较易出现暴雨, 导致雷达信号衰减, 使TRMM对大雨强降雨的探测出现较大偏差;流域内降雨以10~50 mm为主, 其雨量占到总雨量的60%;流域降雨在年内1-3 月中旬为干旱少雨期, 3 月下旬-9 月初为湿润多雨期, 9-12 月再次进入干旱少雨期;而空间分布呈东、西部大, 中部小的格局;同时发现, 在赣南山区TRMM降雨较观测雨量低300~400 mm, 这可能受高程和坡度的影响, 使TRMM对山区降雨的探测精度也出现较大偏差。  相似文献